NBA Finals AI Predictions: Game-by-Game Picks & Projected Stats for Every Game

We turned to ChatGPT to predict the results of every game in the NBA Finals, as well as the Finals MVP winner.

Last updated: June 5, 2025 11:42 AM EDT • 9 min read

Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) gestures after scoring against the Indiana Pacers. Photo by Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images.

With the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder facing off tonight in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), we trained ChatGPT to make our NBA Finals AI predictions with projected stats for every game.

We trained the popular AI model using OpenAI's "Deep Research" function to build a comprehensive understanding of this matchup on the court before predicting the final score and stat leaders for every game in this series.

In addition to our 2025 NBA Finals betting preview, here are our AI-powered predictions including game-by-game results, stat leaders, and who will take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy and Finals MVP honors.

🏆 AI prediction: Who will win the 2025 NBA Finals?

The following has been generated fully using ChatGPT's latest and most advanced model, which relies on real-time search and logic. These should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your NBA picks.

Series prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 4, Indiana Pacers 1
Finals MVP winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
Average scoring margin: Thunder +5.4 PPG
Key trends:

OKC held Indiana under 105 points in 4 of 5 games
Thunder starters outscored Pacers starters by an average of 13.8 PPG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.2 PPG in the series

🧠 Pacers vs. Thunder series projections

The 2025 NBA Finals are projected to end in five games, with the Oklahoma City Thunder overpowering the Indiana Pacers through balanced scoring, elite defense, and a superstar leap from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City’s combination of defensive versatility, rim protection, and halfcourt execution stifled Indiana’s pace-driven offense, while their size and length exploited the Pacers' limited rim deterrence.

Though Tyrese Haliburton delivered standout playmaking efforts, Indiana struggled to string together stops and relied too heavily on shot variance from role players. Meanwhile, the Thunder’s core trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren dictated the series tempo and created matchup problems across every game.

The result? A dominant 4-1 series win that cements OKC as the NBA’s newest dynasty-in-the-making.

💪 Why the Thunder will win the 2025 NBA Finals

✅ Elite halfcourt execution + superstar shotmaking

Oklahoma City’s offense thrives in the postseason thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to generate clean looks late in the shot clock. He has averaged nearly 30 points per game during this playoff run, and his mastery of the midrange, foul-drawing, and late-clock isolation gives the Thunder a reliable source of offense when games tighten. Paired with Jalen Williams’ slashing and off-ball gravity, OKC consistently generates high-quality looks without sacrificing tempo control.

✅ Defensive versatility anchored by Holmgren

Chet Holmgren’s presence in the paint changes everything. His rim protection (2.0 blocks per game in the playoffs) and ability to switch on the perimeter allows OKC to seamlessly shift between drop, switch, and zone coverages - a crucial advantage against Indiana’s motion-heavy, pace-driven attack. The Thunder are one of the few teams that can flatten out Haliburton-led pick-and-rolls without compromising on the weak side, and their closeout discipline eliminates easy 3-point opportunities.

✅ Depth, cohesion, and coaching edge

While Indiana’s bench has struggled at times under the spotlight, OKC’s rotation is built for postseason attrition. Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace provide steady two-way play, while Mark Daigneault continues to press the right buttons with substitution patterns and matchup adjustments. The Thunder don’t just rely on talent - they play connected, low-mistake basketball that wins possessions over a seven-game series.

🏅 2025 NBA Finals MVP prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Projected averages (NBA Finals):

Points: 31.2 PPG
Assists: 6.2 APG
Rebounds: 5.8 RPG
Shooting splits: 53% FG, 38% 3PT, 91% FT

Key moment: 36-point clincher in Game 5

🧠 Why SGA will win Finals MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander cements his place among the league’s elite with a Finals performance that blends efficiency, control, and clutch shotmaking. As Indiana scrambled to contain OKC’s offense, Shai consistently beat coverage schemes with his signature pace, footwork, and midrange dominance. He dictated tempo, found open shooters when doubled, and closed out multiple games with dagger buckets in the fourth quarter.

In a series where the Thunder's depth and defensive execution shined, it was Shai’s consistency and ceiling-raising brilliance that elevated Oklahoma City to the title. His blend of scoring versatility, composure, and two-way engagement makes him the clear choice for 2025 NBA Finals MVP.

⬇️ Read on for our projections for every game of the NBA Finals.

🔮 Pacers vs. Thunder AI picks & predictions for every game

Here are our full AI projections for every game in the 2025 NBA Finals, including quarter-by-quarter scores, stat leaders, and game recaps. This was all generated using ChatGPT's 4o model backed by "Deep Research" and real-time search.

🏀 Game 1 prediction: Thunder 112, Pacers 100

Team	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Final
Pacers	28	22	24	26	100
Thunder	31	30	27	24	112

🔢 Game 1 stats

Leading scorer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) - 34 points
Leading rebounder: Chet Holmgren (OKC) - 13 rebounds
Leading passer: Tyrese Haliburton (IND) - 11 assists

📰 Game 1 recap

The Thunder opened the 2025 NBA Finals with a commanding 112-100 win behind a vintage performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who sliced up the Pacers' defense with 34 points on efficient midrange dominance and late-clock shot-making. Chet Holmgren controlled the interior with 13 rebounds and 3 blocks, anchoring an OKC defense that kept Indiana's pace in check.

Despite a strong playmaking night from Tyrese Haliburton (11 assists), the Pacers struggled to find a rhythm against Oklahoma City’s switching defense and lost the battle in the paint and transition, setting the tone for a series in which adjustments will be key.

🏀 Game 2 prediction: Thunder 111, Pacers 104

Team	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Final
Pacers	26	29	22	27	104
Thunder	30	27	31	23	111

🔢 Game 2 stats

Leading scorer: Jalen Williams (OKC) - 28 points
Leading rebounder: Myles Turner (IND) - 14 rebounds
Leading passer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) - 9 assists

📰 Game 2 recap

Oklahoma City took a 2-0 series lead behind a breakout performance from Jalen Williams, who poured in 28 points on decisive drives and off-ball movement that sliced through Indiana’s zone adjustments. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played the role of distributor with 9 assists, steering a Thunder offense that continues to overwhelm with balance and tempo.

The Pacers showed more fight in Game 2 - including a strong rebounding effort from Myles Turner - but they couldn’t string together stops when it mattered. As the series shifts to Indiana, the pressure mounts on Rick Carlisle’s squad to find answers against a Thunder team that’s now 14-4 this postseason.

🏀 Game 3 prediction: Pacers 109, Thunder 101

Team	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Final
Thunder	27	25	21	28	101
Pacers	29	30	23	27	109

🔢 Game 3 stats

Leading scorer: Tyrese Haliburton (IND) - 31 points
Leading rebounder: Chet Holmgren (OKC) - 12 rebounds
Leading passer: Tyrese Haliburton (IND) - 13 assists

📰 Game 3 recap

Backed by a roaring Indianapolis crowd, Tyrese Haliburton delivered a signature performance with 31 points and 13 assists, powering the Pacers to a 109-101 win that reignited the series. Indiana’s offense finally broke through OKC’s switching defense by pushing tempo and spacing the floor with relentless movement.

The Thunder struggled to get consistent production outside of Shai and Jalen Williams, and while Chet Holmgren continued to control the glass, Indiana’s shotmaking proved too much down the stretch. With the series now 2-1, the Pacers have life - and momentum - heading into a critical Game 4.

🏀 Game 4 prediction: Thunder 105, Pacers 97

Team	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Final
Thunder	25	26	24	30	105
Pacers	30	27	21	19	97

🔢 Game 4 stats

Leading scorer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) - 32 points
Leading rebounder: Thomas Bryant (IND) - 11 rebounds
Leading passer: Jalen Williams (OKC) - 8 assists

📰 Game 4 recap

The Thunder took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 105-97 win, fueled by a masterclass from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who dropped 32 points and iced the game with a flurry of late-clock buckets in the fourth. Jalen Williams quietly orchestrated the offense with 8 assists, and OKC’s defense clamped down in the final frame, holding Indiana to just 19 points.

The Pacers started strong, building a halftime lead behind Thomas Bryant’s energy and glass-cleaning, but they couldn’t sustain their shotmaking once the Thunder locked in. Oklahoma City is now one win away from its first NBA championship since moving from Seattle.

🏀 Game 5 prediction: Thunder 110, Pacers 102

Team	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Final
Pacers	27	24	25	26	102
Thunder	29	28	32	21	110

🔢 Game 5 stats

Leading scorer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) - 36 points
Leading rebounder: Chet Holmgren (OKC) - 15 rebounds
Leading passer: Tyrese Haliburton (IND) - 10 assists

📰 Game 5 recap

The Oklahoma City Thunder are NBA champions.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander capped off a Finals MVP performance with 36 points in the title-clinching 110-102 win, silencing every Pacers run with his signature blend of craft and control. Chet Holmgren owned the paint with 15 rebounds and 4 blocks, anchoring a defense that kept Indiana at bay through three quarters before coasting to the finish line.

Tyrese Haliburton dished out 10 assists and kept the Pacers competitive, but Oklahoma City’s depth, composure, and elite two-way play were simply too much. The Thunder close out the series 4-1, completing one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history.

🤖 How we generated our 2025 NBA Finals AI predictions

These 2025 NBA Finals predictions were generated using OpenAI’s most advanced version of ChatGPT, which analyzes massive datasets and historical context to simulate realistic basketball outcomes - not just theoretical models or betting lines.

While not a conventional sports betting algorithm, the AI draws from a wide range of publicly available and statistically grounded sources, including:

Historical NBA Finals trends, series formats, and Game 1 impact on series outcomes
Team-level advanced stats, including offensive/defensive rating, halfcourt efficiency, and adjusted net rating
Individual player performance trends across the 2025 NBA Playoffs
Key matchup data (e.g., pick-and-roll efficiency, rim protection, transition scoring) from sources like NBA.com and Cleaning the Glass
Coaching tendencies, substitution patterns, and lineup synergy metrics
Head-to-head regular season results and how those matchups evolved over the season
Home-court impact, travel effects, and how young teams perform under Finals pressure

By synthesizing these variables through pattern recognition, strategic logic, and sequential simulation (each game influencing the next), the AI produces full game-by-game predictions, stat projections, and ultimately, a forecast for the 2025 NBA champion and Finals MVP.

🗓️ 2025 NBA Finals schedule: Pacers vs. Thunder

Game 1: Thursday, June 5 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 2: Sunday, June 8 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 3: Wednesday, June 11 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 4: Friday, June 13 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Game 5: Monday, June 16 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
Game 6: Thursday, June 19 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
Game 7: Sunday, June 22 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)*

* if necessary

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.

Pacers vs. Thunder Odds: 2025 NBA Finals Updated Betting Lines & AI Prediction